2025-11-11 · Serenity 推文观察 on X · 作者：Serenity · 发布时间：2025-11-11T00:58:15+00:00
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这条推文含有财经/市场相关信息或标的符号，核心内容是：Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong: $WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity. 240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing. Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev. $CRWV -…
原推主要内容：Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong: $WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity. 240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing. Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev. $CRWV - ER was bearish near term due to lower forward revenue Q4. $55.6B backlog ($22.4B from OpenAI). Slight earnings beat 1.36B vs. 1.29B (129% Y/Y), EBITDA margins (61%). Stock dropped on datacenter delay, this hurts FY 2025 (505-5.15B vs. 5.29B consensus). Operating margins was lowered, which I predicted due to debt financing with interest (~1B+ interest/year) that cuts into margins, while other Neoclouds don't have that same issue. That be…
这条内容可以作为市场观察线索，但不能直接当成结论。需要进一步核对：相关公司/资产的基本面数据、公告或财报来源、估值口径、仓位/流动性背景，以及推文发布时点之后价格和新闻是否已经变化。
涉及标的/关键词：$CIFR、$CRWV、$WULF。如果推文给出买卖倾向或强弱排序，主要风险在于时间尺度不明确、样本证据不足、市场波动和作者持仓偏见；如果是宏观/资金流判断，还需要验证利率、美元、流动性和风险偏好是否同步支持。
可纳入观察清单，但应作为待验证假设，而不是投资建议。后续应优先找原始数据和反方证据验证。
Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong: $WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity. 240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing. Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev. $CRWV - ER was bearish near term due to lower forward revenue Q4. $55.6B backlog ($22.4B from OpenAI). Slight earnings beat 1.36B vs. 1.29B (129% Y/Y), EBITDA margins (61%). Stock dropped on datacenter delay, this hurts FY 2025 (505-5.15B vs. 5.29B consensus). Operating margins was lowered, which I predicted due to debt financing with interest (~1B+ interest/year) that cuts into margins, while other Neoclouds don't have that same issue. That being said this was a one-off issue, and we'll likely see any sell-off bought back after next quarter since markets are forward looking. _ As for Michael Burry arguing on GPU deprecation: he's completely wrong, but partially right about understating it. His general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives -> in Google's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are being run at 100% utilization lol. Repeat 7 years ago. Amin Vahdat, said that Google currently has seven generations of its TPU hardware in production, and that the “seven- and eight-year-old TPUs have 100 % utilization.” "Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics -> in Nvidia's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They don't just get nuked since it's an add-on to compliment newer models. Nvidia’s A100 can be partitioned into isolated instances to maximize utilization, and older-gen accelerators are still monetized for inference or lower-prio tasks rather than getting nuked as what he claims. They actually have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later. He's completely wrong here on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex. It's a nuanced argument but Neocloud thesis remains in tact and stronger than ever.