Serenity：Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I…

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这条推文含有财经/市场相关信息或标的符号，核心内容是：Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and…

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Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted: Retail panic. Capitulation. Liquidity. I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD: Here's what and why this is happening: Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing. Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding: 1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR. 2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc. 3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers 4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins. 5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit. We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers. 6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections. Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share. We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street. Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet. However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter. So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought: 1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated. 2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off) 3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail. 4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions) 5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.) Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly. Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates). It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company. The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.