2025-10-18 · Serenity 推文观察 on X · 作者:Serenity · 发布时间:2025-10-18T23:07:47+00:00
财经相关 · 已做深入分析serenityxall-postsfinancemarketticker
这条推文含有财经/市场相关信息或标的符号,核心内容是:Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR…
原推主要内容:Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the abso…
这条内容可以作为市场观察线索,但不能直接当成结论。需要进一步核对:相关公司/资产的基本面数据、公告或财报来源、估值口径、仓位/流动性背景,以及推文发布时点之后价格和新闻是否已经变化。
涉及标的/关键词:$AMZN、$CRM、$ETOR、$FLY、$GRRR、$LTC、$LULU、$OPAD、$RDDT、$SG、$SNAP、$VIRT。如果推文给出买卖倾向或强弱排序,主要风险在于时间尺度不明确、样本证据不足、市场波动和作者持仓偏见;如果是宏观/资金流判断,还需要验证利率、美元、流动性和风险偏好是否同步支持。
可纳入观察清单,但应作为待验证假设,而不是投资建议。后续应优先找原始数据和反方证据验证。
Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.