2025-10-01 · Serenity 推文观察 on X · 作者：Serenity · 发布时间：2025-10-01T00:49:43+00:00
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这条推文含有财经/市场相关信息或标的符号，核心内容是：Personal thoughts for trading this October (macro + tailwinds): 1. Government shutdown is 97% likely, already priced in Polymarket. Again, this was already known way ahead of time. Which is why stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge du…
原推主要内容：Personal thoughts for trading this October (macro + tailwinds): 1. Government shutdown is 97% likely, already priced in Polymarket. Again, this was already known way ahead of time. Which is why stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge during times of volatility. Don't be a panickan, this is already priced in and known in advance, usually during the actual news, what WSJ reports, people might panic sell or buy Puts. Use this opportunity to buy stocks on dips. Historically initially, stocks drop on the news but ends up increasing new the tail end (eg. Oct 2021 (Debt Ceiling) 15 days, SPY +1.34%). Right now, it's an especially great time to go LONG and if you don't have p…
这条内容可以作为市场观察线索，但不能直接当成结论。需要进一步核对：相关公司/资产的基本面数据、公告或财报来源、估值口径、仓位/流动性背景，以及推文发布时点之后价格和新闻是否已经变化。
涉及标的/关键词：$AMZN、$APPL、$LULU、$NBIS、$VIRT、$VIX。如果推文给出买卖倾向或强弱排序，主要风险在于时间尺度不明确、样本证据不足、市场波动和作者持仓偏见；如果是宏观/资金流判断，还需要验证利率、美元、流动性和风险偏好是否同步支持。
可纳入观察清单，但应作为待验证假设，而不是投资建议。后续应优先找原始数据和反方证据验证。
Personal thoughts for trading this October (macro + tailwinds): 1. Government shutdown is 97% likely, already priced in Polymarket. Again, this was already known way ahead of time. Which is why stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge during times of volatility. Don't be a panickan, this is already priced in and known in advance, usually during the actual news, what WSJ reports, people might panic sell or buy Puts. Use this opportunity to buy stocks on dips. Historically initially, stocks drop on the news but ends up increasing new the tail end (eg. Oct 2021 (Debt Ceiling) 15 days, SPY +1.34%). Right now, it's an especially great time to go LONG and if you don't have positions setup, use this time of uncertainty to stock up, not panic sell. 2. Polymarket is pricing in 56% of 75bps rate cuts this year. There's still a ton of macro tailwind for high growth stocks like $NBIS or RKLB or small caps on Russel. This decreased ~8% last fed meeting off positive economic data, but it's still likely just for risk management, so adjust accordingly. (eg. growth stocks that rely on forward earnings, stuff like Zillow or others that benefit from increased housing sales from lower rates, or small cap stocks with floating interest debt cut). But we'll likely get rate cut frontrunning in Oct after the short lived gov shutdown drop (if there is any) 3. SEASONALITY TAILWIND. October (front-running) -> November -> December. Huge opportunity for stocks. E-Commerce like $AMZN, tech like $APPL retail like $LULU, etc. All benefit from seasonality such as Christmas shopping, Nov black friday deals. Tech also performs great in December, so if you're position you can leverage longs aiming for March, on a government rate shutdown dip and just ride the wave until Jan. I don't know how how it's going to play out exactly, but just going off assumption that stocks drop off confirmation fears, it's likely short term and a great time to build long positions, not sell, because of macro + seasonality tailwind + immateriality of government shutdowns historically.