2025-09-29 · Serenity 推文观察 on X · 作者：Serenity · 发布时间：2025-09-29T14:59:53+00:00
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这条推文含有财经/市场相关信息或标的符号，核心内容是：As you know, I do value investing too like with Upwork (+52% in 2 months, P/E 7-> 11.5). An interesting stock is $VIRT as an asymmetrical volatility hedge, a stock barely anyone talks about. Clean asymmetry to balance $IREN / $NBIS. 6.6 forward p/e, 5.38b MC,…
原推主要内容：As you know, I do value investing too like with Upwork (+52% in 2 months, P/E 7-> 11.5). An interesting stock is $VIRT as an asymmetrical volatility hedge, a stock barely anyone talks about. Clean asymmetry to balance $IREN / $NBIS. 6.6 forward p/e, 5.38b MC, Virtu ~ Citadel, and does market making for a large percentage of retail orders. Current price: $35.19 Again, nobody is really talks about this stock, so I like testing my a new thesis against the market sometimes. I could be wrong and would love feedback too! This is a light DD on why I'm building light call + share positions: 1/ Rate cuts don’t nuke earnings. Virtu’s term loans are floating (financing +2.5%). total $1.545B. −75 bps ≈…
这条内容可以作为市场观察线索，但不能直接当成结论。需要进一步核对：相关公司/资产的基本面数据、公告或财报来源、估值口径、仓位/流动性背景，以及推文发布时点之后价格和新闻是否已经变化。
涉及标的/关键词：$IREN、$NBIS、$VIRT。如果推文给出买卖倾向或强弱排序，主要风险在于时间尺度不明确、样本证据不足、市场波动和作者持仓偏见；如果是宏观/资金流判断，还需要验证利率、美元、流动性和风险偏好是否同步支持。
可纳入观察清单，但应作为待验证假设，而不是投资建议。后续应优先找原始数据和反方证据验证。
As you know, I do value investing too like with Upwork (+52% in 2 months, P/E 7-> 11.5). An interesting stock is $VIRT as an asymmetrical volatility hedge, a stock barely anyone talks about. Clean asymmetry to balance $IREN / $NBIS. 6.6 forward p/e, 5.38b MC, Virtu ~ Citadel, and does market making for a large percentage of retail orders. Current price: $35.19 Again, nobody is really talks about this stock, so I like testing my a new thesis against the market sometimes. I could be wrong and would love feedback too! This is a light DD on why I'm building light call + share positions: 1/ Rate cuts don’t nuke earnings. Virtu’s term loans are floating (financing +2.5%). total $1.545B. −75 bps ≈ ~12M yr interest savings (not all funding prices down but most are floating tho) 2/ Using Q2 as an anchor (EPS $1.65 / adj $1.53; NI ~$293M; rev ~44% YoY). If we est EPS 10–12% for lower VIX + ~2.6% for net rate drag -> $1.31–$1.34 EPS/qtr -> $5.22–$5.35 next 12 months $35.21 / $5.35 = 6.58x forward p/e $35.21 / $5.22 = 6.74x forward p/e Even if we overshoot because of good Q2 quarter as an anchor without rate cuts, EPS $4.78 -> 7.4× forward p/e, is still extremely good. Other websites like Value Investing estimate forward p/e to be 6.99 - 8 forward p/e. 3/ There's ~$303M authorization remaining for buybacks off a small 5.2B marketcap. If vol normalizes or spikes, expect both EPS and the multiple to lift from today’s ~6–7×. If not, it's undervalued and you can sit back with buybacks. IN my opinion Virtu is a great asymmetrical hedge. If VIX stays low and we get rate cuts, VIRT is undervalued + goes up anyway or stays flat/slightly down, other equities go up, and it serves its hedging case. The Nov 2025 market-structure changes probably is the larger risk to payment order flow, which might create some headwind. Regardless VIX increases and other equities go down, VIRT would get re-rated and goes up. I just see risk/reward being good at these levels so bought Calls. Would recommend shares instead. Starter positions: Call options for Mar 2026 (low 30 IV at entry).